Bold claim: reuse and return schemes could nearly wipe out plastic packaging pollution within 15 years. A sweeping new study by the Pew Charitable Trusts—featuring researchers from Imperial College London and the University of Oxford—projects that the current 66 million tonnes of annual plastic pollution could be drastically reduced, potentially to near zero, by 2040 through strategic reuse, deposit-return programs, and broader material substitutions.
The research represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of the global plastic system. It warns that without action, plastic pollution will more than double over the next 15 years, reaching about 280 million tonnes annually. This surge equates to a constant flow of waste: roughly a full garbage truck of plastic dumped somewhere in the world every second. Packaging stands out as the primary driver of this growth.
According to the report, Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025, this escalating pollution threatens nearly every facet of life—economic stability, public health, and the climate. The authors describe a future where land, water, and air pollution rise, exposure to toxic chemicals increases, disease risk grows, and wildlife suffers higher rates of ingestion and entanglement.
Plastic production—tied to fossil fuels—could jump 52% from 450 million tonnes this year to 680 million tonnes by 2040, outpacing the capacity of waste management systems that are already stretched thin. Packaging alone accounts for the fastest growth, with plastics dominating 2025 packaging and expected to maintain that lead through 2040.
Packaging is identified as the single largest source of global plastic waste. In 2025 it represented about one-third of the world’s plastic waste, injecting 66 million tonnes of pollution into the environment annually.
Yet the study offers a hopeful counterpoint: much of this pollution could be almost eradicated through targeted interventions—most notably, deposit-return schemes and reuse models in which consumers return empty containers or use refillable options at retailers and cafes. When combined with polymer bans and substituting plastics with materials like cardboard, glass, and metal, pollution could be reduced by as much as 97% over the next decade and a half.
Winnie Lau, the Pew project director for preventing plastic pollution, emphasizes two pivotal strategies. First, reuse and return systems could eliminate about two-thirds of pollution. Second, reducing plastic production for packaging and transitioning to alternative materials could remove a substantial portion of the remaining impact.
Beyond environmental harm, the report highlights everyday health concerns linked to plastics—children at play with plastic toys, and communities near petrochemical facilities—due to the presence of more than 16,000 intentionally added chemicals and numerous contaminants. These substances have been associated with hormone disruption, reduced fertility, lower birth weights, cognitive and developmental effects, diabetes, and elevated cardiovascular and cancer risks.
The study also projects greenhouse gas emissions from the global plastic system to rise from 2.7 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2025 to 4.2 GtCO2e in 2040, a 58% increase. If plastic production were a country, its emissions would rank third in the world by 2040, behind only China and the United States.
However, meaningful transformation is possible. With reforms in waste management, reductions in production, and the widespread adoption of reuse and return systems, the report suggests plastic pollution could drop by 83%, greenhouse gas emissions could fall by 38%, and health impacts could decrease by 54%. These changes could translate into global savings of about $19 billion (roughly £14 billion) annually in government spending on plastic collection and disposal by 2040.
Tom Dillon of Pew expresses cautious optimism: there is real potential to remake the plastic system and solve the pollution problem within a generation, but it requires decisive prioritization of people and the planet by policymakers and industry alike.
